Almost a fifth of Ukraine is still occupied. That judgment now looks not just immoral, but stupid.īut some caution is in order. Donald Trump chortled that Putin was a “genius”. In the weeks before the invasion, China announced a friendship “without limits” with Russia. Russian defeat will go down badly in Beijing and Mar-a-Lago. The global political atmosphere will also change. If Russia is defeated, the invasion threat hovering over the rest of Europe will recede. That prospect was alarming enough to persuade Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. Permanent Russian occupation would snuff out political freedom and would be enforced with killings, torture and deportations.Īn easy Russian victory in Ukraine would also have opened the door to further aggression against its neighbours – including Moldova and perhaps even NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The pictures of weeping civilians embracing Ukrainian soldiers as they liberate towns and villages from the Russians underline what this war is all about. But Ukraine’s advances also open a new and dangerous phase in the conflict. The prospect of Russian defeat is real and exhilarating. The supply of advanced weaponry from the US and Europe – in particular, accurate long-range missiles – means they are now better equipped than the Russians. They are fighting to defend their country. The Ukrainians also have the advantage in morale and munitions.

As a result, Ukraine now probably has more troops on the battlefield than Russia.

By contrast, Ukraine has mobilised its entire adult male population. Unwilling to acknowledge that Russia is at war, Putin has refused to institute conscription. The US estimated last month that 70,000-80,000 of that force has been killed or wounded since the beginning of the invasion. The original invasion force mustered by the Kremlin was about 200,000 troops. The limited gains Russia has made over the past six months have come at a terrible cost. By April, the Russians had been forced into a humiliating retreat after making incursions towards Kyiv.Ī car drives past a destroyed armoured vehicle in Balakliya in the Kharkiv region. Vladimir Putin failed to achieve the lightning victory that he was aiming for on February 24. This war has gone badly for Russia from the outset. The sight of Russian troops in headlong retreat in Ukraine is stunning – but it should not be surprising.

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